One year
on, with a new government in place and nearly 600 protesters killed, little to
nothing has changed.
The
nationwide, leader-less demonstrations which broke out on October 1, 2019,
spiralled into a decentralised movement slamming unemployment, poor public
services, endemic corruption and a political class more loyal to Iran or the US
than to Iraqi citizens.
A month
later, the protests forced the resignation of then-Prime Minister Adel Abdel
Mahdi, who was succeeded by Mustafa al-Kadhimi, with the latter pledging to
integrate protesters’ demands into his transitional government’s plans.
But on
the ground, little has been achieved.
Al-Kadhimi
has set an early parliamentary vote for June 6, 2021, nearly a year ahead of
schedule.
“Protesters
wanted early elections and a new electoral law. We’re doing that,” Abdelhussein
Hindawi, al-Kadhimi’s adviser on elections, told AFP news agency.
But while
Parliament approved a new voting law in December, essential points including
the size of electoral districts and whether candidates would run independently
or on lists have yet to be agreed by lawmakers.
Despite
repeated claims he has no political ambitions and would only serve as a
transitional premier, al-Kadhimi himself appears to be preparing for an
electoral fight.
Several
MPs and members of rival parties told AFP the prime minister’s advisers are
scouting candidates for the 2021 elections, hoping he could secure a new term
in office.
“He’s
stuck because he has to make a decision about where he wants to be,” said Renad
Mansour, a researcher at the UK-based Chatham House.
“Does he
want to be PM for another four years and play politics, or does he want to
change something right now?”
‘ONE FOOT IN - ONE FOOT OUT’
When he
came to power, al-Kadhimi pledged to guide Iraq through a dire fiscal crisis,
saying state coffers were “nearly empty” after years of waste and an oil price
slump.
The World
Bank said Iraq’s poverty rate could double to 40 percent this year and that
youth unemployment, already at 36 percent, could rise further.
Al-Kadhimi’s
cabinet first vowed to reduce the public payroll and audit stipends handed out
to millions of Iraqis but walked back the policy following public criticism.
It
changed course again in August, hiring hundreds at the defence ministry – but
not enough to stop sit-ins outside other government offices demanding jobs.
Finance
Minister Ali Allawi missed a late August deadline to submit a “white paper” of
economic reforms that is still being finalised, Iraqi officials told AFP.
Al-Kadhimi
also said he would prioritise Iraq’s fight against the novel coronavirus, which
has killed close to 9,000 people, with the health ministry warning hospitals
could “lose control” if the spread is not contained.
The prime
minister has few allies in Parliament, where pro-Iran MPs have bristled at his
references to protester demands.
“He’s had
one foot in the elite camp and one foot in the anti-establishment camp. At the
end of the day, he ends up not satisfying either,” said Mansour.
‘IT’S TOO SENSITIVE’
The
premier has also struggled to make good on his promise to bring those
responsible for the deaths of nearly 600 protesters and activists since last
October to justice.
In
September, his government announced that families of victims could apply for
compensation from the state, but no funds have been disbursed yet.
A few weeks
later, al-Kadhimi said a statue would be erected in Tahrir Square, the
epicentre of Baghdad’s rallies, as well as in the protest hotspot of Nasiriya
further south.
Protesters
reacted to the announcement with derision, pointing out that public art statues
had not been part of their demands.
Meanwhile,
the intimidation campaign has continued, including the abduction of a German
national and the killing of scholar and government adviser Hisham al-Hashemi in
July.
“We know
who and where the killers are, but we cannot arrest them or announce that. It’s
too sensitive,” one Iraqi official told AFP on condition of anonymity.
Anti-government
political activists in Iraq’s southern city of Basra have also been shot dead
and others wounded in separate attacks by unknown gunmen last month.
The
country has witnessed a series of assassinations and forced disappearances of
journalists and political activists since October 2019.
Al-Kadhimi
pledged to investigate the recent killings, but no one has been held
accountable to date.
Rocket
attacks on diplomatic missions and military convoys have also increased, with
hardline groups becoming more brazen in their threats against al-Kadhimi.
Many of
those factions fall under the state-sponsored Hashd al-Shaabi paramilitary
network, and being unable to exert full control over them has made al-Kadhimi
look “weak”, Mansour said.
“The
challenge in Iraq is no one man can fix it – but certainly not a man who
believes in incremental slow change at a time that you have such a violent context,”
he said.
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